Hidden Metric Revealed in Bitcoin: Bull or Bear, This Metric Will Tell

Cryptocurrency analytics company Alphractal has published a remarkable report on Bitcoin’s (BTC) annual performance.

According to the report, Bitcoin’s 1-year percentage change metric shows a rare pattern, and limited price movement in the coming days could be decisive for the market’s direction.

Alphractal argues that historically, periods when this indicator is negative have generally coincided with bear markets. However, the report points to a significant exception: July 2020. During that period, the annual performance briefly turned negative, followed by a strong bull market.

According to the analysis company, the current pattern is quite similar to this exceptional period in 2020. A rise of approximately 4.5–5% would be sufficient for Bitcoin’s annual performance indicator to turn positive again. If this happens, it would be only the second time in Bitcoin’s history that such a rare pattern has emerged.

The Alphractal report includes the following assessment:

An increase of approximately 5% could bring the metric back into the “green” zone and pave the way for a new trend reversal.

If this increase does not occur, annual performance will remain negative, presenting a picture consistent with previous bear market cycles.

According to the report, Bitcoin, with just a few percentage points of price movement, will either break a historical pattern or confirm a scenario that has coincided with past bear markets. Therefore, Alphractal emphasizes that current levels represent a critical decision zone from both a technical and historical perspective.