EUR/USD Price Forecast: Edges higher but faces resistance at 100-day EMA

The EUR/USD pair edges higher to near 1.1655 during the early European session on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) softens against the Euro (EUR) amid renewed concerns over US Federal Reserve (Fed) independence. Traders await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report on Tuesday. 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a statement that the US Justice Department has threatened criminal charges against him in connection with his Senate testimony last June, during which he discussed the estimated $2.5 billion renovation. Powell described the move as unprecedented and a direct challenge to the central bank’s independence. This, in turn, weigh on the Greenback and create a tailwind for th major pair in the near term. 

On the other hand, heightened geopolitical tensions after reports of hundreds of deaths during protests in Iran could boost safe-haven currency such as the Greenback. US President Donald Trump threatened repercussions if Iranian authorities target civilians, while Tehran warned the US and Israel against any intervention.

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, the 100-day EMA edges higher at 1.1665, underscoring a gently improving medium-term bias. Price holds just below this gauge, with the average capping attempts to extend higher. Price hovers near the lower Bollinger Band at 1.1650, flagging downside stretch as volatility shows a modest expansion. That band acts as initial support, while a daily close back above the average would stabilize the tone.

RSI has firmed to 41, recovering from recent lows yet still below the 50 midline, keeping momentum subdued. On strength, resistance aligns at the Bollinger middle band at 1.1728, with the upper band at 1.1817 set to cap any extended recovery. A sustained move above these thresholds could shift the bias back toward a broader upside phase.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)