Is Trump's tariff threat a case of 'crying wolf'? Between illusion and reality, where is the US dollar headed?

FX678, January 2—— U.S. President Donald Trump issued a wave of tariff threats and deal pledges in 2025. Many have materialized into a surge of tariffs that have upended decades of U.S. economic policy—but now that it’s 2026, some of his statements remain unrealized.

U.S. President Donald Trump issued a wave of tariff threats and deal pledges in 2025. Many have materialized into a surge of tariffs that have upended decades of U.S. economic policy—but now that it’s 2026, some of his statements remain unrealized.



Some of Trump’s unfulfilled threats reflect his consistent strategy: as a president with a record of imposing sky-high tariffs, he often uses them to force other countries to strike new deals, retaliate, or even punish political critics. Meanwhile, a growing number of tariffs have indeed taken effect—from Trump’s punitive new taxes on imported metals to tit-for-tat tariffs with America’s major trading partners—plunging global consumers and businesses into uncertainty.

Below are Trump’s statements on large-scale (but yet-to-be-implemented) tariff threats and pledges made in 2025, along with the current status of these issues:

Internal Revenue Service

On January 14, 2025, Trump wrote on social media: For a long time, we have relied on the IRS to tax our great people... We will begin charging those who profit from us through blockchain transactions, and they will eventually pay their fair share. January 20, 2025, will mark the birth of the External Revenue Bureau.

In his inauguration speech on January 20, 2025, Trump said: "We are establishing an external tax department, which will be responsible for collecting all tariffs, taxes, and other fiscal revenues. This will bring huge funds into our treasury, all coming from abroad."

Status: The External Revenue Bureau still has not been established as of 2026. Although government officials have repeatedly reiterated plans to launch the agency within the first few months of Trump’s new administration, the entity does not currently exist.

200% Tariff on European Wine, Champagne, and Spirits

On March 13, 2025, Trump posted on social media: "The EU, the world’s most hostile and harsh tax and tariff institution, whose sole purpose is to take advantage of America, just imposed a horrendous tariff of up to 50% on whiskey. If this tariff is not immediately removed, the U.S. will soon impose a 200% tariff on all wine, champagne, and alcoholic products exported from France and other EU member states."

Status: The EU’s planned tariff on American whiskey—as part of a broader retaliation against Trump’s new steel and aluminum tariffs—has been delayed, with the latest extension reportedly lasting at least until February 2026.

Trump had threatened to impose a 200% tariff on European alcohol, but the threat was ultimately not implemented. However, in the U.S.-EU trade agreement reached in summer 2025, spirits were not included in the list; the agreement set a 15% tariff on most European imports.

100% Tariff on Foreign Films

On May 4, 2025, Trump posted on social media: "The American film industry is dying rapidly... I am authorizing the Department of Commerce and the U.S. Trade Representative to immediately begin procedures to impose a 100% tariff on all foreign films imported into our country."

On September 29, 2025, Trump posted on social media: "Our film industry is being stolen from the United States by other countries, like taking candy from a baby... I will impose a 100% tariff on all films made outside the U.S."

Status: Despite repeated threats, the U.S. has yet to impose a 100% tariff on foreign films. After Trump first pledged to launch this process in May 2025, the White House stated that no final decision had been made. In addition, how the U.S. would tax overseas-made films remains unclear.

Pharmaceutical Tariffs

In a cabinet meeting on July 8, 2025, Trump said: "We will soon announce measures regarding pharmaceuticals. We will give companies about a year to a year and a half to transition. After that... these drugs will face very, very high tariffs, such as 200%."

On September 25, 2025, Trump posted on social media: "Starting October 1, 2025, we will impose a 100% tariff on all brand or patented drugs—unless the relevant companies are building pharmaceutical manufacturing facilities in the U.S."

Status: In reality, the president has not signed any executive order to impose a 100% tariff on pharmaceuticals starting October 1, 2025, nor has any such tariff been implemented so far. However, Trump has previously hinted that drug tariffs could rise sharply in the future, saying in an August 2025 interview that he would first impose a "small tariff," with rates possibly rising to 250% later. Meanwhile, trade agreements with specific countries contain separate tariff rates or exemptions—for example, the UK secured a three-year zero-tariff period for pharmaceutical exports to the U.S. The U.S. government also announced agreements with some pharmaceutical companies to lower drug prices.

100% Tariff on Computer Chips

On August 6, 2025, Trump stated: "We will impose about a 100% tariff on chips and semiconductors... but if they are manufactured in the U.S., they will be fully exempt from taxes."

Attention: Trump proposed a $12 billion agricultural aid plan, saying "farmers have gone through an exceptionally tough year."

Status: The comprehensive 100% tariff on computer chips has not yet taken effect. When Trump announced the plan in August 2025, he did not specify a timeline for implementation, and few other details have been disclosed.

$2,000 Tariff Dividend

On November 9, 2025, Trump wrote on social media: "People against tariffs are fools!... Everyone will receive at least a $2,000 dividend (excluding high-income groups!)."

Status: Specific information on how, when, or if the tariff dividend will actually benefit Americans remains scarce. Budget experts say the related data is hard to justify. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant has suggested this may not mean the government will directly issue checks. In November 2025, Besant said the rebate could take the form of a tax cut. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett also stated that it would depend on Congress.

The Dollar Oscillates Amid Fog of Expectations and Real Barriers

Trump’s tariff rhetoric and policy tendencies, even if not fully implemented, have provided "net support" for the dollar.

Trump’s combination of real and rhetorical tariff actions has created a "low-oxygen but persistently burning" environment for the dollar. Actual tariff barriers have raised the floor for inflation and interest rates, while unfulfilled threats act like a constant smoke alarm, driving international capital into the dollar—a relatively safe "oxygen chamber."

Despite potential weakening factors such as fiscal risks and the "boy who cried wolf" effect, the dollar, when compared to the equally challenged global growth outlook, is still more likely to become the "relative safe haven" for funds in this self-created asymmetric shock.

Market attention will shift from "Will he say it?" to "Which measures will actually be implemented, and what will the economic data show afterwards?" On Friday (January 2), the dollar index fluctuated in a narrow range around 98.30.



(Dollar Index Daily Chart, Source: EasyFX)

At 15:03 Beijing time (UTC+8), the dollar index was at 98.32.