Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD prints fresh record before consolidating below $4,600

Gold (XAU/USD) trades around $4,580 on Monday at the time of writing, up 1.60% on the day. The precious metal reached a new all-time high at $4,601.32 earlier in the day, extending a particularly strong bullish trend seen over recent weeks.

From a macroeconomic perspective, the backdrop remains broadly supportive for Gold, although this aspect has taken a back seat. Persistent geopolitical tensions, concerns surrounding the independence of the Federal Reserve (Fed), and a weaker US Dollar (USD) continue to underpin demand for safe-haven assets. That said, slightly stronger-than-expected US labor data have tempered expectations of aggressive monetary easing in 2026, marginally limiting the metal’s fundamental upside.

Technical Analysis

In the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,584.50. The 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) rises above the 100-period one, signaling sustained bullish momentum. Both SMAs trend higher, and price holds above them, with the 50 SMA at $4,431.11 offering nearby dynamic support. The 14-period RSI sits at 73.77 (overbought), indicating stretched momentum that could prompt a pause. Immediate resistance stands at $4,601.32, while support aligns at $4,550.

The rising trend line from $4,274.47 underpins the bullish bias, offering a secondary floor near $4,470.87. Additional support is seen at $4,500, which would be tested on pullbacks if momentum cools. A sustained hold above the cited supports would keep the near-term tone positive, while a rejection near the overhead barrier would tilt price action into consolidation.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)