Bitcoin falls short as a safe haven after Justice Department issues subpoena to Powell: Crypto Daybook Americas

Market Overview: Bitcoin and Safe-Haven Assets

By Omkar Godbole (All times in ET unless noted)

Since its debut in 2009, bitcoin (BTC) has been regarded by supporters as a hedge against instability in both politics and finance, as well as a challenge to traditional systems.

However, as of Monday, bitcoin is lagging behind classic safe-haven assets like gold, even as tensions rise between President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. This standoff has sparked debate over the Fed’s ability to remain independent.

On Sunday, Powell disclosed that federal prosecutors have launched a criminal probe into his Congressional testimony regarding the central bank’s $2.5 billion headquarters renovation. Powell characterized the investigation as political pressure on the Fed for resisting the president’s repeated calls for aggressive rate cuts.

Gold surged to a new high above $4,600 per ounce, while silver also reached a record at $84.60. Bitcoin initially climbed to $92,000 during Asian trading hours, defying weakness in Nasdaq futures and suggesting some investors were seeking safety in crypto.

This brief divergence between crypto and equities didn’t last. Bitcoin slipped to $90,500 during European trading, and the broader digital asset market also pulled back. Monero, known for its privacy features, dropped from its all-time high of $598 to $571 but remained up 15% over the past day. Other notable gainers included CC, RENDER, and ZEC, each rising 4%-5% in 24 hours.

Bitcoin’s retreat coincided with steady Treasury yields, indicating that markets do not expect Powell to yield to legal pressure and slash rates. At the time of writing, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was approaching 4.2%, while the two-year yield, which is sensitive to rate changes, reached 3.54%—the highest in two weeks.

Analysts at ING noted that a drop in the U.S. unemployment rate in December, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, along with potentially higher-than-expected inflation data this week, could delay any Fed rate cuts until at least March.

Some market watchers also pointed to ETF flows as a negative factor.

Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, commented via email: “Between January 5 and January 9, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $681 million, despite high trading volumes of $19.5 billion. This suggests active portfolio rebalancing rather than investors exiting the market. Ethereum ETFs also experienced $69 million in weekly outflows.”

“Meanwhile, ETFs for XRP and SOL continued to attract investment, highlighting selective risk-taking rather than a broad appetite for crypto exposure,” Misir added.

On the derivatives front, the market appeared subdued, with 30-day implied volatility indices for BTC and ETH sitting at multi-week lows.

Further Reading

For more on today’s altcoin and derivatives activity, see Crypto Markets Today.

Key Events to Watch

For a full rundown of this week’s major events, check out CoinDesk’s Crypto Week Ahead.

• Crypto
  • Jan. 12: The Dubai Financial Services Authority’s updated Crypto Token Regulatory Framework becomes effective in the Dubai International Financial Centre, eliminating the recognized-token list and placing responsibility for token suitability on firms.
• Macro
  • No major macroeconomic events scheduled.
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • No earnings reports scheduled.

Token-Related Developments

For a detailed calendar, visit CoinDesk’s Crypto Week Ahead.

• Governance Votes & Calls
  • Extra Finance DAO is holding a vote on the allocation of lending emissions for Epochs 131 to 134. veEXTRA holders will distribute rewards across eligible Base chain pools using a weighted voting system. Voting closes Jan. 12.
  • Treehouse DAO is voting on enabling mesh bridging for its assets via Chainlink CCIP, allowing direct transfers across supported chains without routing through Ethereum. Voting ends Jan. 12.
• Unlocks
  • No significant token unlocks this week.
• Token Launches
  • Jan. 12: CharacterX (CAI) will be listed on Binance, KuCoin, and other exchanges.

Upcoming Conferences

For more events, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Week Ahead.

• No conferences scheduled for this week.

Market Performance Snapshot

• BTC: $90,399.43 (unchanged since Friday 4 p.m. ET; 24hr change: -0.21%)
• ETH: $3,106.83 (+0.15%; 24hr change: +0.19%)
• CoinDesk 20 Index: 2,881.65 (-0.24%; 24hr change: -0.56%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate: 2.78% (down 1 basis point)
• BTC funding rate on Binance: 0.0034% (annualized: 3.7164%)

CoinDesk 20 members’ performance

• DXY: 98.84 (-0.30%)
• Gold futures: $4,602.90 (+2.27%)
• Silver futures: $84.21 (+6.14%)
• Nikkei 225: Closed for public holiday
• Hang Seng: 26,608.48 (+1.44%)
• FTSE: 10,116.28 (-0.08%)
• Euro Stoxx 50: 5,983.21 (-0.24%)
• DJIA: 49,504.07 (+1.08%)
• S&P 500: 6,966.28 (+0.93%)
• Nasdaq Composite: 23,671.35 (+1.18%)
• S&P/TSX Composite: 32,612.93 (+1.22%)
• S&P 40 Latin America: 3,266.88 (+0.59%)
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate: 4.197% (+2.6 bps)
• E-mini S&P 500 futures: 6,961.00 (-0.63%)
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures: 25,719.25 (-0.84%)
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures: 49,376.00 (-0.70%)

Bitcoin Network Metrics

• BTC Dominance: 59.11% (no change)
• ETH/BTC Ratio: 0.03436 (+0.11%)
• Hashrate (7-day average): 1,012 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $39.01
• Total fees: 1.92 BTC / $174,132
• CME Futures Open Interest: 116,810 BTC
• BTC in gold terms: 21.4 oz.
• BTC market cap as a percentage of gold: 6.04%

Technical Analysis: Chainlink (LINK)

LINK’s daily price swings in candlestick format (TradingView)

• The chart displays daily candlestick movements for Chainlink’s LINK token.
• Currently, LINK is testing resistance at a downward trendline drawn from the August peak.
• If LINK breaks above this trendline, it could signal a bullish reversal and attract additional buyers.

Crypto-Related Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed Friday at $240.78 (-1.96%), pre-market at $239.70 (-0.45%)
• Circle Internet Group (CRCL): $82.90 (+1.36%), $81.75 (-1.39%)
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): $24.94 (-2.20%), $24.62 (-1.28%)
• Bullish (BLSH): $38.40 (-2.29%), $38.21 (-0.49%)
• MARA Holdings (MARA): $10.22 (-2.11%), $10.20 (-0.20%)
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): $15.32 (+1.26%), $15.22 (-0.65%)
• Core Scientific (CORZ): $17.14 (+2.76%), $17.01 (-0.76%)
• CleanSpark (CLSK): $11.61 (-3.17%), $11.66 (+0.43%)
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): $42.18 (+2.63%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): $16.34 (+1.68%), $16.52 (+1.10%)

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): $157.33 (-5.77%), $158.29 (+0.61%)
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): $19.37 (-6.29%)
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): $10.02 (-2.53%), unchanged
• Upexi (UPXI): $2.12 (-4.93%), $2.20 (+3.77%)
• Lite Strategy (LITS): $1.47 (-1.34%)

ETF Fund Flows

Spot Bitcoin ETFs

• Daily net outflows: $250 million
• Total net inflows: $56.38 billion
• Aggregate BTC holdings: approximately 1.29 million

Spot Ethereum ETFs

• Daily net outflows: $93.8 million
• Total net inflows: $12.45 billion
• Aggregate ETH holdings: approximately 6.08 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Headlines

• Federal Prosecutors Open Investigation Into Fed Chair Powell (The New York Times): The U.S. attorney’s office in Washington has authorized a criminal investigation into Powell’s Congressional testimony and documents related to the $2.5 billion Fed headquarters project.
• Coinbase Ups Pressure as Crypto Bill Moves to Senate Markup (Bloomberg): Coinbase argues that proposed legislation would prevent non-bank platforms from offering stablecoin yields, a restriction not present in the GENIUS Act.
• U.S. Steps Up Planning for Possible Action in Iran (The Wall Street Journal): President Trump is scheduled to meet with top advisers on Tuesday to discuss possible responses to protests in Iran, ranging from cyber operations and sanctions to potential military action.
• Dubai bans privacy tokens, tightens stablecoin rules in crypto reset (CoinDesk): Dubai’s regulatory overhaul aligns with global anti-money laundering standards, narrows the definition of fiat-backed stablecoins, and places responsibility for asset approval on licensed firms in the Dubai International Financial Centre.
• UK lawmakers push to ban crypto political donations over foreign interference fears (CoinDesk): Seven committee chairs in the UK have called for a ban on crypto donations to political campaigns, citing concerns over transparency and the risk of foreign interference, referencing a U.S. intelligence report on Russian election meddling.