World Gold Council: Gold price approaches $4,600 but is not yet overbought, real ceiling is at $4,770!

Gold prices are receiving a significant boost from ongoing geopolitical turmoil. The World Gold Council (WGC) pointed out that even if gold reaches $4,600 per ounce, from a technical perspective, it cannot be considered extremely overbought until it breaks above $4,770 per ounce.

In its latest "Weekly Market Monitor" report, analysts from the World Gold Council noted that after a challenging start to the year, gold prices have returned to an upward trajectory.

They wrote: “Two weeks into 2026, gold appears to have weathered tax-loss selling pressure, portfolio rebalancing, and early headwinds from precious metals volatility, setting three new all-time highs. When usually short-lived geopolitical shocks become frequent, they start to drive up risk premiums, which in turn benefits gold.”

They added that accusations against the Federal Reserve by the Trump administration provided further impetus for Monday’s trading, pushing spot gold to $4,600 per ounce. “All of this reinforces one message: in an increasingly uncertain world, a strategic allocation to gold benefits portfolios.”

They noted that key economic data for the gold market this week includes December US CPI data to be released on Tuesday, “which may show a temporary uptick, with core CPI monthly growth possibly rising to 0.4% (previously 0.2%)—likely due to data distortions from prior government shutdown months.” In Europe, “UK November GDP (released Thursday) is expected to show stagnation by the end of 2025. Meanwhile, full-year German GDP for 2025 (also released Thursday) may show a modest year-on-year growth of 0.3% after two consecutive years of contraction.”

They wrote that December gold export data from China, to be released Wednesday, “may continue to demonstrate resilience, as exports to non-US regions may provide sustained support, potentially helping to improve the trade balance and the renminbi exchange rate.”

Turning to technical analysis, analysts at the World Gold Council stated that based on a key Q4 chart pattern, any price below $4,770 is not considered overbought.

They wrote: “Despite signs of weakness and momentum divergence, gold has only experienced minor setbacks so far and has set new highs after successfully holding its short-term 13-day EMA support (currently at $4,447 per ounce). We maintain the view that this consolidation is a temporary pause in the core uptrend. As long as the $4,447 support holds, short-term risks remain skewed to the upside, with the next resistance at $4,600 per ounce. Our so-called ‘typical’ upper overbought limit—25% above the 200-day moving average—is slightly below this, at $4,585 per ounce.”

The analysts stated: “While we remain alert to the possibility of a new pullback near $4,600 per ounce, we point out that market positioning has not yet reached extreme levels, and resistance from the October/December 2025 ‘triangle’ pattern remains higher at $4,770 per ounce. If $4,447 per ounce support is breached, and then $4,408 per ounce as well, this would ease the short-term upward bias, but we expect solid support to remain at $4,345 per ounce, as well as in the $4,275–$4,265 per ounce range.”