Bitcoin’s Traditional Four-Year Cycle Disrupted, Says VanEck

VanEck’s Mixed Outlook on Crypto and Traditional Assets

VanEck has expressed a split perspective regarding the short-term prospects for Bitcoin and the wider cryptocurrency market, while signaling a more favorable stance toward traditional investments like artificial intelligence stocks and gold.

In a recent investment update, the U.S.-based asset manager noted that Bitcoin’s ongoing rally has disrupted its usual four-year cycle, making it harder to interpret short-term trends. As a result, VanEck has adopted a more cautious approach for the crypto sector over the next three to six months.

According to CoinGecko, Bitcoin is currently valued near $92,000, reflecting a 1.8% daily increase but a 1.9% decline over the past week.

Rachel Lin, CEO of SynFutures, commented to Decrypt, “The predictable four-year cycle for Bitcoin no longer holds. Institutional involvement, exchange-traded funds, and broader economic factors now play a bigger role than the halving narrative alone.”

Despite this cautious outlook, not everyone at VanEck agrees. Matthew Sigel, the firm’s head of digital assets research, and portfolio manager David Schassler maintain a more optimistic view for the current cycle, highlighting ongoing internal debate.

Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget, told Decrypt, “Investors are shifting their strategies, increasing their holdings in spot Bitcoin and derivatives as part of broader portfolio management, rather than trying to time market cycles.”

This divergence in crypto outlook stands in contrast to VanEck’s more confident position on other risk assets, which the firm attributes to increased clarity around government spending, monetary policy, and major investment trends.

Traditional Markets Receive a Positive Signal

VanEck’s report suggests that stocks tied to artificial intelligence have become more appealing following a recent correction, making them more attractive now than at their highs last October.

The firm also sees gold regaining its status as a “leading global currency,” driven by strong demand from central banks. While acknowledging that gold’s technical indicators suggest it may be overextended, VanEck views any price dips as opportunities to increase exposure.

“Gold remains a solid choice for stability and preserving capital, rather than for outsized gains at this stage,” Lin observed.

Chen agreed, describing gold as a “portfolio stabilizer,” but emphasized that investors who actively manage their exposure are likely to see better returns.

Gold is currently trading around $4,615, close to its record high. On the prediction platform operated by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, users now assign an 82% probability that gold will reach $5,000 before Ethereum does, up from 68% a week ago.

Political Uncertainty and Its Impact

This analysis comes at a time of increased political tension, including a lawsuit by the Department of Justice against Federal Reserve Chair Powell, which raises questions about the independence of the central bank—a development that could significantly alter the investment landscape VanEck describes.

Lin noted, “If the Federal Reserve’s independence is seriously challenged, it could prompt investors to diversify more aggressively into assets not tied to any government.” In such a scenario, Bitcoin and gold could both benefit, potentially strengthening their roles as hedges against monetary instability.