Credit unions dismiss stablecoin incentives, bitcoin investors await inflation figures: Crypto Daybook Americas

Crypto Market Update: Key Developments and Insights

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless noted)

Stablecoin Rewards Face Pushback

U.S. credit unions have joined banks in opposing incentive payments for holding stablecoins, as the crypto community awaits new U.S. inflation figures that could influence bitcoin demand.

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, a proposed piece of legislation, aims to classify digital assets into three groups: digital commodities such as bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) under CFTC oversight, investment contract assets regulated by the SEC, and approved payment stablecoins. Disagreements persist among banks, credit unions, and crypto companies regarding interest payments on stablecoin balances.

For now, traditional financial institutions appear to have prevailed. On Tuesday, the Senate unveiled a revised draft of the bill that would ban digital asset service providers from offering any form of yield or interest simply for holding payment stablecoins.

Regardless of the final outcome, many analysts believe that passing the bill could propel BTC and the wider crypto market to new highs.

"The CLARITY Act is like the Punxsutawney Phil of this crypto winter. If it emerges but fails in Congress, the cold spell may linger," commented Matthew Hougan, Bitwise's chief investment officer, on X. "But if it passes and becomes law, we could see record-breaking prices."

Prediction markets currently estimate an 80% likelihood that the act will be enacted this year.

Market Performance and Inflation Anticipation

Major cryptocurrencies by market cap—such as bitcoin, ether, XRP, and solana—rose between 1% and 2% over the past day. Broader market strength was evident, with XMR, IP, and MYX each gaining over 15%, and the CoinDesk 80 Index climbing 3%.

However, according to XS.com senior analyst Samer Hasn, traders are largely waiting for the release of December’s U.S. inflation data at 8:30 a.m.

Estimates from FactSet suggest the consumer price index increased 2.6% year-over-year, down from November’s 2.7%. A lower reading could reinforce expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, potentially boosting bitcoin and other risk assets.

Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus.com, noted, "If the data comes in softer, both bitcoin and equities could regain momentum." Conversely, higher-than-expected inflation could dampen hopes for rate cuts, strengthen the dollar, and weigh on risk appetite.

JPMorgan has revised its forecast, no longer expecting a rate cut this year and instead predicting a rate hike in 2027.

For more on today’s altcoin and derivatives action, read Crypto Markets Today.

Upcoming Events to Monitor

For a full schedule of this week’s events, visit CoinDesk’s Crypto Week Ahead.

• Crypto
  • Jan. 13, 1 p.m.: Hedera (HBAR) will upgrade its mainnet to version 0.68.
  • Jan. 13, 9:30 p.m.: BNB Smart Chain’s Fermi hard fork goes live, reducing block times from 750 ms to 450 ms.
• Macro
  • Jan. 13, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. December CPI. Headline YoY estimate: 2.6%, MoM: 0.3%; Core YoY: 2.7%, MoM: 0.3%.
• Earnings (FactSet estimates)
  • No earnings reports scheduled.

Token-Related Events

For more details, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Week Ahead.

• Governance Votes & Calls
  • Usual DAO is voting on the acquisition of Fira, a fixed-rate lending platform, for $1.72 million. Voting ends Jan. 13.
  • Moons Governance is deciding on creating a DAO-managed MOON bridge between Arbitrum One and Nova. Voting ends Jan. 13.
  • Jan. 13: TON Foundation launches its interview series Off the Script with TON.
• Token Unlocks
  • Jan. 13: Cheelee (CHEEL) will release 2.78% of its circulating supply, valued at $11.71 million.
• Token Launches
  • Jan. 13: Fogo’s token generation event takes place.
  • Jan. 13: The claiming window for Recall’s token airdrop closes.

Conferences

For a full list of events, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Week Ahead.

• No conferences scheduled this week.

Market Overview

• BTC: $91,984.13 (+0.58% from 4 p.m. ET Monday, 24hr change: +1.91%)
• ETH: $3,129.76 (+0.55%, 24hr change: +0.94%)
• CoinDesk 20: 2,914.54 (+0.3%, 24hr change: +1.10%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate: 2.79% (+1 bps)
• BTC funding rate on Binance: 0.0098% (annualized: 10.68%)

CoinDesk 20 members’ performance

• DXY: 98.96 (+0.10%)
• Gold futures: $4,594.90 (-0.43%)
• Silver futures: $85.59 (+0.59%)
• Nikkei 225: 53,549.16 (+3.10%)
• Hang Seng: 26,848.47 (+0.90%)
• FTSE: 10,142.02 (unchanged)
• Euro Stoxx 50: 6,014.79 (-0.03%)
• DJIA: 49,590.20 (+0.17%)
• S&P 500: 6,977.27 (+0.16%)
• Nasdaq Composite: 23,733.90 (+0.26%)
• S&P/TSX Composite: 32,874.70 (+0.80%)
• S&P 40 Latin America: 3,272.07 (+0.16%)
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield: 4.195% (+0.8 bps)
• E-mini S&P 500 futures: 7,004.75 (-0.17%)
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures: 25,883.50 (-0.28%)
• E-mini Dow Jones futures: 49,732.00 (-0.15%)

Bitcoin Metrics

• BTC Dominance: 59.32% (no change)
• ETH/BTC Ratio: 0.03402 (+0.29%)
• Hashrate (7-day average): 1,021 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $39.78
• Total Fees: 2.37 BTC / $216,713
• CME Futures Open Interest: 115,255 BTC
• BTC in gold: 21.9 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 6.16%

Technical Trends

SOL/ETH daily candlestick chart (TradingView)

• The SOL/ETH ratio on Binance has broken above a declining trendline that defined a four-month bear phase starting in September.
• This ratio has also surpassed its 50-day simple moving average, a key indicator for short-term price direction.
• Both signals suggest SOL may outperform in the near term.

Crypto-Related Stocks

• Coinbase Global (COIN): $242.98 (+0.91%), pre-market $244.95 (+0.81%)
• Circle Internet Group (CRCL): $82.90 (unchanged), $83.43 (+0.64%)
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): $25.49 (+2.21%), $25.66 (+0.67%)
• Bullish (BLSH): $40.00 (+4.17%), $40.05 (+0.12%)
• MARA Holdings (MARA): $10.65 (+4.21%), $10.71 (+0.56%)
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): $16.45 (+7.38%), $16.53 (+0.49%)
• Core Scientific (CORZ): $17.48 (+1.98%), $17.53 (+0.29%)
• CleanSpark (CLSK): $11.96 (+3.01%), $12.06 (+0.84%)
• CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): $47.53 (+5.58%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): $18.25 (+11.69%)

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): $162.23 (+3.11%), $163.63 (+0.86%)
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): $22.51 (+16.21%), $23.47 (+4.26%)
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): $10.26 (+2.40%), $10.28 (+0.19%)
• Upexi (UPXI): $2.23 (+5.19%), unchanged
• Lite Strategy (LITS): $1.45 (-1.36%)

ETF Inflows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net inflows: $116.7 million
• Total net inflows: $56.5 billion
• BTC held: approximately 1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net inflows: $5.1 million
• Total net inflows: $12.46 billion
• ETH held: approximately 6.08 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Highlights

• J.P. Morgan expects Fed rate hike in 2027; Barclays and Goldman delay rate-cut forecasts (Reuters): J.P. Morgan predicts the Federal Reserve will keep rates steady through 2026, with a hike in 2027. Barclays and Goldman Sachs see the first rate cut coming no earlier than mid-2026.
• Bitcoin and ether traders anticipate lower volatility (CoinDesk): Implied volatility for both bitcoin and ether has dropped to multi-month lows, with options traders increasingly selling both calls and puts to benefit from sideways price action.
• Japan’s Nikkei index hits new high amid election optimism (The Wall Street Journal): Stocks surged on hopes that a general election will strengthen the prime minister’s position, boosting confidence in pro-growth policies.
• Ukraine restricts Polymarket as part of gambling crackdown (CoinDesk): Authorities blocked access to the prediction market for operating without a license, alongside nearly 200 other betting sites. Polymarket is already banned in 33 countries.