Bitwise: If ETF demand remains strong in the long term, BTC price will enter a parabolic growth phase

According to Odaily, Bitwise Chief Information Officer Matt Hougan stated on the X platform that if ETF demand continues in the long term, the price of BTC will enter a parabolic growth phase. Matt Hougan cited the 65% increase in gold prices in 2025 as an example, pointing out that both gold and BTC prices are determined by supply and demand.

After the United States confiscated Russian sovereign bond deposits in 2022, annual gold purchases by central banks around the world increased from about 500 tons to about 1,000 tons and have remained stable. This change in demand altered the supply-demand balance, but was not immediately reflected in the price. Gold prices rose by 2% in 2022, 13% in 2023, and 27% in 2024, only entering a parabolic growth phase in 2025. This is because the demand in the previous years was met by holders willing to sell gold. When the selling pressure from sellers was exhausted and demand persisted, prices rose sharply.

Currently, a similar situation exists with BTC and ETFs. Since the debut of ETFs in January 2024, their purchase volume has already exceeded 100% of the new supply of BTC. Because existing holders are willing to sell, the price has not yet entered the parabolic phase. If ETF demand continues, the selling pressure from existing sellers will eventually be exhausted.