Trump's Pressure on the Federal Reserve Backfires; Hawkish Candidate Waller Overtakes Hassett

BlockBeats News, January 15, following the launch of an investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell by the U.S. Department of Justice, the situation has shifted in the opposite direction of what Trump expected. The probability of Powell remaining in office until 2028 when his term as chairman expires in May has begun to rise, and the more hawkish candidate Kevin Warsh has started to surpass Kevin Hassett as the leading contender for the next chair. Trump may find himself in a year-long standoff with the Federal Reserve.

According to Polymarket data, shortly after Powell released a video response to the investigation on January 11, the probability of him leaving the Federal Reserve Board by the end of May or by the end of the year both plummeted. Currently, bettors believe the probability of Powell leaving the Fed before May 30 has dropped from 74% at the beginning of the month to 45%, and the probability of him stepping down by the end of the year has also fallen from 85% to 62%.

The prediction market has also adjusted its expectations for the probability of Trump ally Kevin Hassett being nominated as the next Federal Reserve chair. Around the time news of the Department of Justice investigation spread, the more hawkish Kevin Warsh began to overtake Hassett in support on Polymarket among candidates for Fed chair.

Policy analyst Dan Clifton stated that since last summer, there has been an informal agreement between Trump and Powell: if Powell agreed to leave the Fed when his term as chairman expires this May, Trump would not target the multi-billion dollar renovation project at the Fed headquarters. Previously, Trump had fiercely criticized the renovation plan, but in the second half of last year, his criticism of the Fed had diminished. This bottom line was broken last Sunday, making it even more likely that Powell will remain at the Fed as an ordinary board member. By continuing personal attacks on Powell, it is likely that Trump will ultimately achieve nothing.