u.today 
Once again, XRP finds itself in a familiar and uncomfortable situation: growing network usage, improving fundamentals and no price follow-through at all. Any quick recovery scenario has been effectively ruled out due to the recent inability to overcome critical resistance levels.
The market's response makes it abundantly evident that demand is insufficient where it truly matters, rejecting any upside momentum XRP may have built. Technically speaking, the structure quickly deteriorated. XRP was rejected close to the 100 EMA, which now serves as a hard ceiling rather than a springboard and was unable to regain the midrange resistance zone. In addition to the stalling price, rejection killed the impulse.
After momentum subsided, buyers vanished, volume decreased and the price returned to a weak consolidation that is inherently bearish. Upside attempts are statistically noise rather than trend shifts in the absence of a clear recovery of higher moving averages. The fact that the XRP Ledger is still expanding makes this even more annoying.
The network is being used more, not less, as evidenced by rising transaction counts and payment activity. This is an area in which XRP performs poorly. There is institutional exposure, but it is passive and superficial.
No persistent ETF-like inflows, no aggressive accumulation and no indication of big players intervening to protect levels or force a breakout are present. The fundamental problem is the discrepancy between price performance and network growth. Instead of viewing XRP as a conviction, asset institutions seem content to observe from the sidelines. Technical resistance zones and sellers maintain control in the absence of real size entering the market.
Bitcoin overheated
A series of signals that typically do not appear until the market has pushed too far too quickly are flashing in Bitcoin. Following weeks of pressure and a steep sell-off, Bitcoin is currently trading in a zone that is typically associated with oversold conditions. This opens the door for a quick retrace and a brief attempt at recovery, but it does not necessarily indicate a complete trend reversal.
Technically speaking, Bitcoin has been below its important short- and midterm averages for a considerable amount of time. The price has been trading below the 26 EMA for a while and has only lately made an effort to recover it, with the 100 EMA remaining above as the actual trouble spot.
The RSI has recovered from lower ranges, indicating that selling pressure is lessening rather than increasing and momentum indicators are no longer speeding downward. However, there is no guarantee of a recovery here.
Whether buyers show up with actual volume, rather than just short-covering, will determine whether Bitcoin can truly follow through. Technically speaking, a swift return to the $98,000-$100,000 range makes sense, especially considering how forcefully the price was previously sold. BTC currently fits the description of an oversold market, which tends to snap back before deciding on a course.
Bitcoin is still below significant long-term resistance despite a rebound, and the overall trend is still harmed. The oversold signal becomes a dead-cat bounce rather than a recovery if BTC is unable to maintain recovered levels and loses the 26 EMA once more.
This increases the likelihood of downside consolidation or another leg lower. Bullish volume growth during the most recent attempt at a rebound indicates that buyers are at least experimenting. The market may experience a significant retrace driven by sidelined capital and late sellers covering positions if that volume continues and Bitcoin is able to stabilize above short-term support.
To put it briefly, there is a chance that Bitcoin will quickly retrace and recover, but this is conditional rather than structural. This is not a sign of long-term upside; rather, it is a tactical window. Whether oversold conditions result in relief or just another pause before continuing will be determined by the upcoming daily closes.
Shiba Inu hits local lows
Although Shiba Inu is once again failing to overcome local opposition, this rejection is far less dramatic than it might initially seem. The recent retreat from resistance is more consistent with transition than outright weakness, and price action is currently compressed into an extremely narrow range. Technically speaking, the 100 EMA is still serving as a ceiling, and SHIB is trading below its heavier moving averages.
Rejection in the vicinity of that zone is normal, not unusual. More importantly, sellers have not been able to compel a lower continuation move. Rather, the price is compressing between converging levels and holding above short-term support, which usually indicates indecision rather than trend failure.
This interpretation is supported by volume behavior. Rather than sharply spiking on the rejection, volume cooled off following the recent upside attempt. This implies that there is not a significant distribution occurring. Rejection candles in clean bearish continuations are typically accompanied by increasing sell volume.
At the moment, SHIB does not display that. A similar narrative is presented by momentum indicators. The RSI is no longer moving into oversold territory and is still higher than previous lows.
This suggests equilibrium rather than fatigue. In essence, the market is stopping in anticipation of a catalyst such as a volatility expansion event or a directional follow-through. This is where the current configuration starts to get intriguing. Particularly following a significant move off the lows, tight price ranges are rarely sustained.
The likelihood of a volatility squeeze rises as volatility decreases. Practically speaking, this indicates that SHIB is coiling, and it is conceivable that it will move more sharply in either direction during upcoming sessions.
The wider attempt at recovery is not invalidated by the recent rejection. This stage can be considered structural digestion as long as SHIB maintains its local support zone and prevents a high-volume breakdown. These kinds of transitional stages frequently precede impulsive actions rather than trend reversals.
