Following Bitcoin’s Underperformance, ARK Invest Releases New BTC Price Forecast

Ark Invest analyst David Puell said that in the next phase of Bitcoin (BTC), the determining factor will no longer be whether investors “believe” in the asset, but how much exposure they want to have and which investment vehicles they use to achieve that exposure.

According to Puell, with the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 and the rapid adoption of digital asset treasury strategies, Bitcoin has crossed a significant threshold in institutionalization and entered a more mature phase.

Puell noted that ETFs and corporate treasuries currently hold approximately 12% of the Bitcoin supply, significantly exceeding market expectations. He stated that this structural demand has become a key determinant of price movements throughout 2025, and argued that this trend could extend into 2026. The assessment was that the market has entered a more institutionalized and relatively lower-volatility phase due to institutional companies accumulating Bitcoin faster than expected.

Ark Invest maintains its confidence in its long-term valuation framework for Bitcoin. According to the model published by the institution, Bitcoin price predictions for 2030 are approximately $300,000 in a bearish scenario, $710,000 in a base scenario, and $1.5 million in a bullish scenario. Puell stated that, driven by the “digital gold” trend and increasing institutional adoption, it is still reasonable for Bitcoin to reach between $300,000 and $1.5 million by 2030.

Puell also stated that with decreasing volatility and narrowing pullbacks, Bitcoin could become an increasingly attractive asset class for investors with a lower risk appetite in the next cycle.