Although Bitcoin has recently experienced a decline, it has just displayed its most dependable indicator of an upcoming bullish trend, according to analysis.

Bitcoin Signals Potential Rebound with Key Chart Pattern

Chart analysts often look for certain patterns that indicate a shift in momentum, and Bitcoin has just displayed one of the most sought-after signals, hinting at a possible market recovery.

However, the broader cryptocurrency sector has not followed suit.

In the past day, more than 95% of the top 100 digital assets by market capitalization have experienced declines, pushing the total crypto market value down to $3.23 trillion. Even Bitcoin has slipped by about 1.3% today, despite the emergence of the bullish “golden cross” on its chart.

Meanwhile, traditional equities provided some relief. The S&P 500 ended Thursday on a positive note after two days of losses, buoyed by strong earnings from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. Exceptional results from Taiwan Semiconductor also boosted chip stocks. The Russell 2000 reached a new record high, marking its ninth straight session outperforming the S&P 500—the longest such streak since 1990. Clearly, investor appetite for risk remains alive.

Understanding Bitcoin’s Golden Cross

Bitcoin has just entered what traders refer to as a “golden cross,” which occurs when a short-term moving average surpasses a longer-term one—most commonly, the 50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day. This pattern is seen as a sign that recent price action is outpacing the longer-term trend, suggesting renewed upward momentum in the market.

Historically, Bitcoin has responded positively to this setup. For example, the golden cross in September 2023 preceded a 148% surge, while the one in September 2024 led to a 64% increase. The pattern from April to August 2025 resulted in a 35% gain. While past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, these trends often repeat in similar ways.

The latest confirmation came after Bitcoin rebounded from a sharp decline that saw its price fall from $125,000 to $80,000 last November. The short-term exponential moving average (EMA) now sits just above the longer-term EMA, a configuration that technical analysts view as bullish.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading below $95,000, down 1.3% for the day after reaching an intraday peak near $97,200. Over the past week, it has gained 5.4%.

The Average Directional Index (ADX) for Bitcoin is currently at 33.5. This indicator measures the strength of a trend, regardless of direction, on a scale from 0 to 100. Values above 25 indicate a strong trend, while readings below 20 suggest a lack of clear direction. At 33.5, Bitcoin is exhibiting confirmed momentum.

Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 63. The RSI gauges buying versus selling pressure, also on a 0 to 100 scale. Readings above 70 typically signal overbought conditions, while those below 30 indicate oversold territory. With an RSI of 63, Bitcoin remains in bullish territory but is not yet in the overbought zone, suggesting there is still room for further gains before traders may consider taking profits.

Momentum and Technical Indicators

The Squeeze Momentum Indicator reveals that Bitcoin is breaking out of a prolonged period of low volatility, as indicated by the "+" signs on the chart. When volatility compresses, it often precedes a significant price move. The current positive momentum suggests the breakout is favoring the bulls.

The EMA setup further supports the bullish case: the 50-period EMA is above the 200-period, and Bitcoin’s price is trading above both. This “bullish alignment” typically signals that short-term momentum is on the side of buyers.

Nevertheless, not every golden cross leads to a sustained rally. There have been instances, such as in early October last year, where the crossover failed to spark a lasting uptrend. Bitcoin still needs to prove its strength before widespread optimism returns. If the current crossover is invalidated, the 50-day EMA could become a weak support level.

The $98,000 price point has acted as a precise resistance, aligning with a Fibonacci retracement drawn from the all-time high near $126,000 to the recent low. Bitcoin touched this level and then pulled back. The psychological barrier at $100,000 is just above, creating a strong zone of resistance where technical and psychological factors converge.

Market Sentiment and Predictions

On Myriad, a prediction market operated by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, traders are increasingly optimistic about Bitcoin’s short-term outlook. The probability of BTC reaching $100,000 before dropping to $69,000 has climbed to 86.7%, up from 63% at the start of the year—a notable shift in sentiment in just two weeks.

However, another prediction market focused on whether Bitcoin will set a new all-time high before July shows only a 73.4% chance that it will not. This suggests that while the market expects Bitcoin to reclaim six-figure territory, surpassing its previous record of $126,000 is seen as less likely in the near term.

This creates an intriguing scenario: technical indicators point to continued upside, with the golden cross and strong momentum in play, but consensus suggests the rally may stall before reaching previous highs.

For traders looking to balance technical signals with market sentiment, the current strategy may be to remain optimistic in the short term but exercise caution as Bitcoin approaches the $100,000 threshold.

Important Price Levels

• Resistance:
  • $98,000 (Fibonacci/immediate)
  • $100,000 (psychological barrier)
  • $108,757 (next Fibonacci level)
• Support:
  • $91,353 (strong support)
  • $89,000 (high volume low)
  • $80,601 (breakdown level)