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BlockBeats News, December 31st. According to the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on December 9th to 10th, most Federal Reserve officials believed that further interest rate cuts would be appropriate as long as inflation declined over time. However, the records show that officials still disagreed on when to cut rates and the magnitude of the cuts. The minutes highlighted the challenges policymakers faced in their latest decision. The decision slightly reinforced market expectations that the Fed would keep rates unchanged when it meets again in January 2026. The minutes noted a significant division among policymakers on whether inflation or unemployment posed a greater threat to the U.S. economy. The minutes stated: "Some participants who were supportive or could have supported maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate at the current meeting indicated that a substantial amount of data on labor market developments and inflation received over the intermeeting period would be useful for assessing the appropriateness of a rate cut." Since the meeting, newly released data has done little to ease the internal divisions within the Fed. The November unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest level since 2021, while consumer price increases were below expectations. Both sets of data provided support for those advocating for rate cuts.

BlockBeats News, December 31 — Thanks to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a significant surge in enthusiasm for AI investments, the global stock market is expected to achieve its largest annual gain in six years in 2025. With only one trading day left in 2025, the MSCI Global Stock Index has already risen by 21% this year. Among them, Asian market stocks are expected to rise for the third consecutive year, poised for their best performance since 2017. In 2025, stock prices have reached historic highs, as optimism about economic growth, corporate earnings, and accommodative monetary policy has fueled a rebound from the decline triggered by Trump's tariffs in April. However, as we head into 2026, investors face higher valuation levels, while policymakers are divided on the extent of further policy easing. Amanda Agati, Chief Investment Officer at Panix Asset Management Group, said on Tuesday, "For the market to continue rising next year, it will need a dovish Federal Reserve." Looking ahead to the new year, investors have reason to remain optimistic: over the past 10 years, the MSCI Global Stock Index has averaged a 1.4% gain in January, with six of those years posting increases. (Golden Ten Data)

According to Odaily, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes staff economic outlook mentioned that, compared to the forecasts prepared for the October meeting, overall, real GDP growth is expected to accelerate slightly through 2028. This is mainly due to financial market conditions expected to provide greater support, as well as an increase in potential output growth expectations. After 2025, as the negative impact of high tariffs diminishes and fiscal policy and financial market conditions continue to support spending, GDP growth is expected to remain above the potential growth rate through 2028. Therefore, the unemployment rate is expected to gradually decline after this year and reach a level slightly below the staff's estimated natural rate of unemployment by 2027. Overall, staff forecasts for inflation in 2025 and 2026 are slightly lower than those presented at the October meeting, but the forecasts for 2027 and 2028 are similar to previous projections.