- Cycle-adjusted MVRV stands at 39%, away from overheated zones
- No clear bullish or bearish signal from current reading
- Market likely entering a consolidation phase
Bitcoin ’s cycle and volatility-adjusted MVRV ( Market Value to Realized Value) has now cooled down to 39%, suggesting that the crypto market has moved away from overheated conditions.
This metric, often used to assess whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued, ranges between 0% and 100%. A 100% reading indicates historical peaks and overbought market conditions, while 0% points to capitulation and possible undervaluation.
At 39%, Bitcoin sits in a neutral zone, signaling that neither bulls nor bears currently hold a clear advantage.
No Strong Directional Signal
The current MVRV level doesn’t suggest an immediate upward or downward trend. It shows that the market is not overheated like it was during recent peaks, nor is it in panic or capitulation mode.
This cooling-off period may be a sign of healthy consolidation — a phase where prices stabilize, participants reassess risk, and new market structures can form. Historically, such phases have often preceded major price moves, though they don’t always indicate direction.
Investors should note that while MVRV can offer valuable insight, it works best alongside other technical and fundamental indicators.
A Balanced Risk/Reward Setup
With the MVRV metric at 39%, the market presents a balanced risk/reward scenario. This implies it may not be the best time for aggressive entries or exits, but rather a period to observe and prepare.
Traders may want to focus on range-bound strategies or wait for stronger signals from on-chain data or price action before making high-conviction moves.
The overall takeaway? Bitcoin has moved out of the “hot zone” and into a more measured and stable state, opening the door to potential setups as volatility subsides.
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