How do 8 top investment banks view 2026? Gemini has summarized the key points for you

Original Title: Bank Outlooks 2026 Research Plan

Original Author: szj capital

Original Translation: TechFlow by Deep Tide

As the year draws to a close, major institutions are beginning to release their outlooks for the coming year.

Recently, overseas netizens compiled the annual outlook reports of eight top investment banks, including Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, Barclays, and HSBC, and had Gemimi Pro3 provide a comprehensive interpretation and analysis.

The following is the full translation, helping you save time and gain an overview of the key economic trends for next year.

Executive Summary: Navigating the "K-Shaped" New World Order

2026 is destined to be a period of profound structural transformation, characterized not by a single synchronized global cycle, but by a matrix of complex and diverse economic realities, policy divergence, and thematic disruption. This comprehensive research report brings together forward-looking strategies and economic forecasts from the world’s leading financial institutions, including J.P. Morgan Asset Management, BlackRock, HSBC Global Private Banking, Barclays Private Bank, BNP Paribas Asset Management, Invesco, T. Rowe Price, and Allianz.

Together, these institutions paint a picture of a "bending but unbroken" global economy: the past decade’s era of "easy money" has been replaced by a new paradigm of "higher for longer" interest rates, fiscal dominance, and technological disruption. The core theme for 2026, dubbed "The Interpretation Game" by Barclays Private Bank, is an environment of contradictory economic data and rapidly shifting narratives, where market participants must actively interpret conflicting signals rather than rely on passive investing.

One of the core pillars of 2026 is the significant divergence between the United States and other countries. J.P. Morgan and T. Rowe Price believe that the U.S. economy is being driven by capital expenditures on artificial intelligence (AI) and fiscal stimulus known as the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (OBBBA), creating a unique growth dynamic. This stimulus is expected to provide a "booster effect" of over 3% economic growth in early 2026, gradually fading thereafter; meanwhile, Allianz and BNP Paribas expect the eurozone to experience a "plain is beautiful" recovery model.

However, beneath the surface growth numbers lies a more turbulent reality. Allianz warns that global business bankruptcy rates will reach "historic highs," with a projected 5% increase in 2026, as the lagged effects of high interest rates deliver a final blow to "zombie companies." This scenario outlines a "K-shaped" expansion: large-cap tech companies and infrastructure sectors thrive due to the "AI Mega Force" (a BlackRock concept), while smaller, leveraged businesses face a survival crisis.

There is a major shift underway in asset allocation consensus. The traditional 60/40 portfolio (60% stocks, 40% bonds) is being redefined. BlackRock proposes the concept of a "New Continuum," arguing that the boundaries between public and private markets are dissolving, and investors need permanent allocations to private credit and infrastructure assets. Invesco and HSBC recommend a return to "quality" in fixed income, favoring investment-grade bonds and emerging market debt while shunning high-yield bonds.

This report analyzes each institution’s investment themes, covering "Physical AI" trades, the "Electrotech Economy," the rise of protectionism and tariffs, and the strategic priorities investors should adopt in this divided world.

Part One: The Macroeconomic Landscape—A World of Multi-Speed Growth

In the post-pandemic era, the synchronized global recovery many anticipated has failed to materialize. 2026 presents a landscape characterized by unique growth drivers and policy divergence. Major economies are advancing at different speeds due to their respective fiscal, political, and structural forces.

1.1 United States: The "North Star" of the Global Economy and OBBBA Stimulus

The United States remains the undisputed engine of the global economy, but its growth drivers are changing. No longer relying solely on organic consumer demand, it is increasingly dependent on government fiscal policy and corporate capital expenditures on AI.

The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (OBBBA) Phenomenon

A key finding in the 2026 outlooks from J.P. Morgan Asset Management and T. Rowe Price is the anticipated impact of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (OBBBA). This legislative framework is seen as the defining fiscal event of 2026.

· Mechanism of Operation: J.P. Morgan notes that OBBBA is a broad legislative package that extends key provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) while introducing new spending items. It includes about $17 billion in border security (enforcement, deportation) funding and $15 billion in defense spending (such as the "Golden Dome" missile defense system and shipbuilding). In addition, the bill raises the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, indicating that fiscal easing will continue.

· Economic Impact: T. Rowe Price believes that this bill, combined with AI spending, will help the U.S. economy shake off growth fears at the end of 2025. J.P. Morgan forecasts that OBBBA will drive real GDP growth to about 1% in Q4 2025 and accelerate to over 3% in the first half of 2026, as tax refunds and spending flow directly into the economy. However, this growth is seen as a temporary acceleration—a reversal of the "fiscal cliff"—with growth returning to a 1-2% trend in the second half as the stimulus fades.

· Tax Impact: The bill is expected to permanently extend the top individual income tax rate of 37% and restore 100% bonus depreciation and R&D expense deductions for corporations. Morgan Stanley points out that this is a massive supply-side incentive, potentially lowering effective corporate tax rates in some industries to as low as 12%, thus driving a "Capex Supercycle" in manufacturing and technology.

The Labor Market Paradox: "Economic Drift"

Despite fiscal stimulus, the U.S. economy still faces a major structural headwind: labor supply. J.P. Morgan describes this environment as "Economic Drift," noting that a sharp decline in net immigration is expected to lead to an absolute reduction in the working-age population.

· Impact on Growth: This supply constraint means that only about 50,000 new jobs per month are expected in 2026. This is not a failure of demand, but a supply-side bottleneck.

· Unemployment Rate Ceiling: As a result, the unemployment rate is expected to remain low, peaking at 4.5%. While this "full employment" dynamic prevents a deep recession, it also sets a hard cap on potential GDP growth, further intensifying the sense of "drift"—the economy appears stagnant despite positive data.

1.2 Eurozone: The "Plain is Beautiful" Surprise

In sharp contrast to the volatility and fiscal drama of the U.S. narrative, the eurozone is gradually becoming a symbol of stability. Allianz and BNP Paribas believe that Europe may outperform expectations in 2026.

Germany’s "Fiscal Reset"

BNP Paribas points out that Germany is undergoing a key structural shift. The country is moving away from its traditional "Black Zero" fiscal austerity policy and is expected to significantly increase spending on infrastructure and defense. This fiscal expansion is expected to have a multiplier effect across the eurozone, boosting economic activity in 2026.

Consumption Support Policies

Additionally, BNP Paribas mentions that permanent reductions in VAT for the catering industry and energy subsidies will support consumer spending, thus avoiding a collapse in demand.

Growth Forecast

Allianz expects eurozone GDP growth in 2026 to be between 1.2% and 1.5%. While this figure appears modest compared to the U.S. "OBBBA stimulus," it represents a robust and sustainable recovery from the stagnation of 2023-2025. Barclays shares this view, believing the eurozone may "deliver positive surprises."

1.3 Asia and Emerging Markets: "Extended Runway" and Structural Slowdown

The outlook for Asia is distinctly polarized: on one hand, China is maturing and slowing; on the other, India and the ASEAN region are vibrant and accelerating.

China: Orderly Deceleration

Major institutions generally agree that China’s era of high-speed growth is over.

· Structural Headwinds: BNP Paribas forecasts that by the end of 2027, China’s economic growth rate will slow to below 4%. T. Rowe Price adds that while stimulus will be implemented, deep-rooted real estate and demographic issues mean these measures are unlikely to provide a "substantial boost."

· Targeted Stimulus: Unlike broad-based stimulus, the Chinese government is expected to focus on supporting "advanced manufacturing" and strategic industries. This shift aims to move the economy up the value chain but will sacrifice short-term consumption growth. Barclays forecasts China’s consumption growth at just 2.2% in 2026.

India and ASEAN: Growth Engines

In contrast, HSBC and S&P Global believe South Asia and Southeast Asia are becoming the new global growth champions.

· India’s Growth Trajectory: HSBC expects India’s GDP growth rate in 2026 to be 6.3%, making it one of the fastest-growing major economies. However, HSBC also issues a tactical warning: despite strong macro performance, near-term corporate earnings growth is relatively weak, and there may be a disconnect with high valuations, potentially affecting equity investors.

· AI Supply Chain: Both J.P. Morgan and HSBC emphasize the significant impact of the "AI theme" on Asian emerging markets, especially Taiwan and South Korea (semiconductors) and ASEAN countries (data center assembly and component manufacturing). The "expansion" of AI trade is a key driver in the region.

1.4 Global Trade: The "Tax Effect" of Tariffs

One potential shadow in the 2026 outlook is the resurgence of protectionism. HSBC has explicitly lowered its global growth forecast from 2.5% to 2.3%, mainly due to U.S.-initiated "multi-purpose tariffs."

Trade Growth Stagnation

HSBC forecasts global trade growth of just 0.6% in 2026. This near-stagnant state reflects a world where supply chains are shortening ("nearshoring") and realigning to avoid tariff barriers.

Inflationary Pressure

T. Rowe Price warns that these tariffs will act as a consumption tax, causing U.S. inflation to "remain persistently above target."

Part Two: The Dilemma of Inflation and Interest Rates

The era of the "Great Moderation" before the 2020s has been replaced by a new normal of volatility. Stubborn U.S. inflation and deflationary pressures in Europe are driving a "Great Decoupling" in central bank policy.

2.1 Divergence in Inflation

· United States: Stubborn and Structural

T. Rowe Price and BNP Paribas believe that due to OBBBA fiscal stimulus and tariffs, U.S. inflation will remain elevated. J.P. Morgan provides a more detailed analysis: inflation is expected to peak near 4% in the first half of 2026 due to tariffs, but as the economy gradually absorbs the shock, inflation will fall back to 2% by year-end.

· Europe: The Deflationary Surprise

In contrast, BNP Paribas points out that Europe will face deflationary pressures, partly due to the "recycling" of cheap Chinese exports into the European market. This could result in inflation below the ECB’s target, in sharp contrast to U.S. inflation trends.

2.2 The Decoupling of Central Bank Policy

The divergence in inflation dynamics directly leads to differences in monetary policy, creating opportunities for macro investors.

· Federal Reserve ("Slow" Path)

The Federal Reserve is expected to be constrained. J.P. Morgan believes the Fed may only cut rates 2-3 times in 2026. T. Rowe Price is even more hawkish, warning that if OBBBA fiscal stimulus overheats the economy, the Fed may not be able to cut rates at all in the first half of 2026.

· European Central Bank ("Dovish" Path)

Facing weak growth prospects and deflationary pressures, the ECB is expected to cut rates significantly. Allianz and BNP Paribas expect the ECB to lower rates to 1.5%-2.0%, well below current market expectations.

· Impact on Forex Markets

This widening interest rate differential (U.S. rates staying high, eurozone rates falling) suggests structural dollar strength against the euro, contradicting the usual consensus that the dollar weakens in mature economic cycles. However, Invesco holds the opposite view, betting that a weaker dollar will support emerging market assets.

Part Three: Thematic Deep Dive—"Mega Forces" and Structural Change

Investment strategies for 2026 are no longer focused on traditional business cycles, but revolve around structural "Mega Forces" (a BlackRock concept) that transcend quarterly GDP data.

3.1 Artificial Intelligence: From "Hype" to "Physical Reality"

The AI narrative is shifting from software (such as large language models) to hardware and infrastructure ("Physical AI").

· "Capex Supercycle": J.P. Morgan notes that data center investment now accounts for 1.2%-1.3% of U.S. GDP and continues to rise. This is not a fleeting trend, but a substantial expansion of steel, concrete, and silicon-based technology.

· "Electrotech Economy": Barclays introduces the concept of the "Electrotech Economy." AI’s demand for energy is endless. Investing in the power grid, renewable energy generation, and utilities is seen as the safest way to participate in the AI wave. HSBC agrees, recommending a portfolio tilt toward utilities and industrials, which will "power" this revolution.

· Contrarian View (HSBC’s Warning): In stark contrast to market optimism, HSBC is deeply skeptical about the financial viability of current AI model leaders. According to its internal analysis, companies like OpenAI could face up to $1.8 trillion in computing rental costs, resulting in a massive funding gap by 2030. HSBC believes that while AI is real, the profitability of model creators is questionable. This further supports its recommendation to invest in "tools and equipment" (such as chipmakers and utilities) rather than model developers.

3.2 The "New Continuum" of Private Markets

BlackRock’s 2026 outlook centers on the evolution of private markets. They believe the traditional binary divide between "public markets" (high liquidity) and "private markets" (low liquidity) is outdated.

· The Rise of the Continuum: Through "evergreen" structures, European Long-Term Investment Funds (ELTIFs), and secondary markets, private assets are gradually becoming semi-liquid. This democratization trend allows more investors to access the "liquidity premium."

· Private Credit 2.0: BlackRock believes private credit is evolving from traditional leveraged buyouts to "Asset-Based Financing" (ABF). This model uses real assets (such as data centers, fiber networks, logistics centers) as collateral, rather than relying solely on corporate cash flows. They see this as bringing "profound incremental opportunities" in 2026.

3.3 Demographics and Labor Shortages

J.P. Morgan and BlackRock see demographics as a slow but unstoppable driver.

· Immigration Cliff: J.P. Morgan forecasts that the decline in net immigration to the U.S. will become a key constraint on growth. This means labor will remain scarce and expensive, not only supporting wage inflation but also further incentivizing companies to invest in automation and AI to replace human labor.

Part Four: Asset Allocation Strategies—"60/40+" and the Return of Alpha

Multiple institutions agree that 2026 will no longer be suitable for the passive "buy the market" strategies popular in the 2010s. In the new market environment, investors need to rely on active management, diversify into alternative assets, and focus on "quality."

4.1 Portfolio Construction: The "60/40+" Model

J.P. Morgan and BlackRock explicitly call for a reform of the traditional 60% stocks/40% bonds portfolio.

· The "+" Components: Both institutions advocate for a "60/40+" model, allocating about 20% of the portfolio to alternative assets (private equity, private credit, real assets). This allocation aims to provide returns uncorrelated with traditional assets while reducing overall portfolio volatility as stock-bond correlations increase.

4.2 Equity Markets: Quality and Rotation

· U.S. Equities: BlackRock and HSBC are overweight U.S. equities, mainly due to the AI theme and economic resilience. However, HSBC recently cut its allocation to U.S. equities due to high valuations. They recommend shifting from "mega-cap tech" to a broader set of beneficiaries (such as financials and industrials).

· International Value Stocks: J.P. Morgan sees strong investment opportunities in value stocks in Europe and Japan. These markets are undergoing a "corporate governance revolution" (including increased buybacks and dividends), and their valuations are at historic discounts compared to the U.S.

· Emerging Markets: Invesco is most bullish on emerging markets. They bet that a weaker dollar (contrary to other institutions’ forecasts) will unlock value in emerging market assets.

4.3 Fixed Income: The Revival of Yield

The role of bonds is changing, no longer relying solely on capital appreciation (betting on rate cuts), but returning to their essence as "yield" instruments.

· Credit Quality: Given Allianz’s warning of rising corporate bankruptcy rates, HSBC and Invesco strongly favor investment-grade (IG) bonds over high-yield (HY) bonds. The risk premium on high-yield bonds is seen as insufficient to compensate for the coming default cycle.

· Duration Allocation: Invesco is overweight duration (especially UK gilts), expecting central banks to cut rates faster than the market expects. J.P. Morgan recommends staying "flexible," trading within ranges rather than making large directional bets.

· CLOs (Collateralized Loan Obligations): Invesco explicitly includes AAA-rated CLOs in its model portfolio, seeing their yield enhancement and structural safety as superior to cash assets.

4.4 Alternative Assets and Hedging Tools

· Infrastructure: Infrastructure investment is the most confident trade among "real assets." BlackRock calls it a "cross-generational opportunity," not only hedging against inflation but also directly benefiting from the wave of AI capital expenditure.

· Gold: HSBC and Invesco see gold as a key portfolio hedge. Against a backdrop of geopolitical fragmentation and potential inflation volatility, gold is considered essential "tail risk" insurance.

Part Five: Risk Assessment—The Shadow of Bankruptcy

Despite the strong U.S. macro outlook due to fiscal stimulus, credit data reveals a gloomier side. Allianz provides a sobering reflection for the market’s optimism.

5.1 The Bankruptcy Wave

Allianz forecasts that global business bankruptcy rates will rise 6% in 2025 and another 5% in 2026.

· "Lagged Trauma": This increase is attributed to the delayed effects of high interest rates. Companies that locked in low rates in 2020-2021 will face a "maturity wall" in 2026, forced to refinance at significantly higher costs.

· "Tech Bubble Burst" Scenario: Allianz explicitly models a downside scenario in which the "AI bubble" bursts. In this scenario, the U.S. is expected to see 4,500 additional bankruptcies, Germany 4,000, and France 1,000.

5.2 Vulnerable Sectors

The report identifies several particularly vulnerable sectors:

· Construction: Highly sensitive to interest rates and labor costs.

· Retail/Discretionary Consumer Goods: Squeezed by "K-shaped" consumption trends, with spending by low-income consumers falling sharply.

· Automotive Industry: Facing multiple pressures from high capital costs, supply chain restructuring, and tariff wars.

This risk assessment further supports the "quality first" bias in asset allocation. The report warns investors to avoid "zombie" companies that survive only on cheap funding.

Part Six: Comparative Analysis of Institutional Views

The following table summarizes the specific 2026 GDP and inflation forecasts provided in institutional reports, highlighting expected divergences.

Conclusion: Strategic Priorities for 2026

The 2026 investment landscape is defined by the tension between two forces: fiscal and technological optimism (U.S. OBBBA plan, AI) versus credit and structural pessimism (bankruptcy wave, demographic issues).

For professional investors, the road ahead requires abandoning broad index investing. The "K-shaped" nature of the economy—data centers booming while construction companies go bankrupt—demands active sector selection.

Key Strategic Points:

· Monitor the "OBBBA" Pulse: The timing of U.S. fiscal stimulus will set the pace for the first half of 2026. Tactical trading strategies targeting the "booster effect" for U.S. assets in Q1 and Q2, and a possible pullback in the second half, are wise (J.P. Morgan).

· Invest in AI "Tools and Equipment": Avoid the valuation risks of pure AI models (HSBC’s warning) and focus on physical infrastructure such as utilities, power grids, and data center REITs (Barclays, BlackRock).

· Diversify through Private Markets: Use the "New Continuum" to access private credit and infrastructure, ensuring these assets are "asset-based" to withstand the bankruptcy wave (BlackRock, Allianz).

· Hedge the "Interpretation Game": In a rapidly shifting narrative environment, maintain structural hedges such as gold and adopt a "barbell strategy" (growth stocks + quality yield assets) to cope with volatility (HSBC, Invesco).

2026 will not be a year for passive investing, but one for investors skilled at interpreting market signals.