US stock futures fall ahead of CPI and bank earnings reports.

• US futures fall ahead of CPI.
• The market awaits inflation and interest rate announcements from the Fed.
• Banks kick off earnings season.

U.S. stock futures traded slightly lower on Monday night, reflecting investor caution ahead of the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the start of earnings season for major banks. The move indicates a temporary adjustment after recent record highs, with the market looking for new signals on inflation, interest rates, and corporate profits.

Contracts linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by about 65 points, equivalent to 0,1%. S&P 500 futures dropped approximately 0,2%, while Nasdaq 100 futures registered a decline of around 0,3%. The moderate fluctuation indicates a wait-and-see environment, without abrupt changes in risk appetite.

The main focus of the day is the CPI report, scheduled for Tuesday, which should offer a clearer picture of the price trajectory after distortions caused by the US government shutdown last fall. Economists project a 2,7% annual increase in December, in line with the November figure, which was a positive surprise as it came in below estimates.

Attention to the CPI gained even more weight after the December jobs report indicated a slightly weaker, but stable, labor market. This scenario reinforced the perception that the Federal Reserve may postpone interest rate cuts. Fed Funds futures indicate two 0,25 percentage point cuts throughout the year, starting in June, according to the CME's FedWatch tool.

“Investors will likely be closely watching to see if the recent disinflationary momentum can be sustained now that the BLS has resumed normal operations,” said Angelo Kourkafas, senior global strategist at Edward Jones. “In recent months, goods prices have risen from relatively low levels, likely reflecting the transfer of tariff-related costs. Conversely, services inflation has shown encouraging signs of gradual moderation. We expect cooling labor market conditions to contribute to a further reduction in services inflation throughout 2026.”

In addition to macroeconomic data, the focus is also on corporate earnings reports. JPMorgan releases its fourth-quarter results before the market opens, kicking off a series of reports from major institutions such as Bank of America, Citigroup, and Morgan Stanley. According to Hank Smith, head of investment strategy at Haverford Trust, the numbers should be solid, supported by economic growth, deregulation, robust credit, and a steeper yield curve.

In Monday's regular session, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones reached new all-time highs, as did the Russell 2000. The market downplayed news about the Justice Department's investigation involving Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, seen as part of current US President Donald Trump's push for lower interest rates. Trump also reiterated his support for a temporary 10% cap on credit card interest rates and threatened to impose a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran, factors that helped pressure bank stocks in the trading session.