Analysis: Bitcoin On-Chain Structure Shows Signs of Improvement, but Capital Inflows Remain the Key Constraint

PANews reported on January 16 that Matrixport stated in its latest weekly report that after experiencing a period of pressure at the end of 2025, bitcoin's on-chain structure has shown signs of improvement. As long as the price can hold above key structural support levels, the institution’s tactical outlook remains cautiously bullish. Multiple valuation and position indicators are stabilizing, suggesting that downside risks have narrowed compared to earlier periods. The market appears to be emerging from a vulnerable phase rather than entering a new round of pullbacks.

However, this round of recovery is still constrained by two factors: insufficient inflow of incremental funds and limited willingness of long-term holders to increase their positions. If new capital cannot continue to enter the market, upward momentum is likely to remain limited; even if there are brief breakouts, it will be more difficult to form a sustainable trend. Overall, the more appropriate strategy is to participate cautiously and select opportunities carefully. Investors should remain in the market but must maintain discipline, and only consider substantially increasing risk exposure after clearer confirmation from capital flows and on-chain profit level indicators.