News

BlockBeats News, January 5, according to monitoring by Lookonchain, trader "beachboy4" lost more than $2 million on Polymarket in just 35 days. By analyzing his trading records, it was found that this trader relied on his own "consensus cognition," that is, predicting outcomes solely based on what the majority believes to be highly probable events. Statistics show that he participated in 53 predictions within 35 days, and although his win rate was as high as 51%, he never set exit strategies or hedging strategies for the predictions he participated in, resulting in "most of his losing positions being held until they went to zero, or the price had already plummeted long before settlement."

BlockBeats News, January 5th, according to LookIntoChain monitoring, trader "beachboy4" lost over 2 million USD on Polymarket in just 35 days. By analyzing his trading records, the trader relied on his "popular consensus cognition," meaning he predicted based solely on the likely outcome that most people believed in. According to statistics, he participated in a total of 53 predictions in 35 days, with a win rate as high as 51%, but he never set exit strategies for his predictions, nor did he set hedge strategies, resulting in "most of the losing positions being held until they went to zero or the price had already plummeted long before settlement."

PANews reported on January 5 that, according to tracking and analysis by Lookonchain, a trader named "beachboy4" made 53 prediction trades on Polymarket within 35 days. Despite a win rate of 51% (winning 27 trades), he ultimately lost over $2 million. His largest single profit was $936,000, while his largest single loss reached $1.58 million. On average, each trade involved a bet of about $400,000, indicating high-risk behavior. This address bought into the "consensus direction" in multiple trades at high prices ranging from 0.51 to 0.67, creating an extremely poor odds structure of "limited upside + full downside." He did not use stop-loss, hedging, or early profit-taking features, resulting in most losing positions going to zero. In addition, this trader frequently made all-in bets on "high-confidence" events in highly transparent and efficient markets, such as NBA or popular football teams. The eventual losses were not due to bad luck, but rather to a structurally unbalanced strategy. Lookonchain summarized five practical lessons: avoid entering at high prices, control single-trade risk, take profits and cut losses in a timely manner, evaluate risk-reward ratios, and avoid markets where you have no edge.