Wheat Prices Edge Downward on Monday

Wheat Markets Decline Following Bearish USDA Reports

Wheat futures experienced declines across all major exchanges on Monday, influenced by negative sentiment from recent USDA data. Chicago SRW contracts dropped by 6 cents, while Kansas City HRW futures ended the day 3 to 5 cents lower. Meanwhile, Minneapolis spring wheat saw a decrease of 1 to 2 cents in the front-month contracts.

Export Activity and Destinations

According to the latest Export Inspections report, wheat exports reached 317,465 metric tons (equivalent to 11.66 million bushels) for the week ending January 8. This figure represents a 73% increase from the previous week and a 2% rise compared to the same period last year. The Philippines led as the primary importer with 100,459 metric tons, followed by Mexico at 60,419 metric tons and Taiwan at 39,899 metric tons. So far this marketing year, total wheat shipments have amounted to 15.581 million metric tons (572.52 million bushels), marking a 19% year-over-year increase.

Additional Updates from Barchart

USDA Reports and Stock Updates

The USDA left its 2025/26 U.S. wheat production estimate unchanged, but reduced feed and residual use by 20 million bushels to 100 million. The carryover from 2024/25 increased by 4 million bushels, resulting in a 25 million bushel rise in projected ending stocks to 926 million bushels, according to the latest WASDE report. On the global stage, world wheat stocks were revised upward by 3.38 million metric tons to reach 278.25 million metric tons.

The quarterly Grain Stocks report indicated that wheat stocks as of December 1 stood at 1.675 billion bushels, surpassing the average analyst estimate of 1.636 billion bushels and exceeding last year’s figure by 107 million bushels.

In its Winter Wheat Seedings report, the USDA announced that total winter wheat acreage is at 32.99 million acres, a decrease of 163,000 acres from the previous year. Hard Red Winter wheat accounts for 23.5 million acres, Soft Red Winter wheat for 6.14 million acres, and white wheat for 3.36 million acres.

Wheat Futures Closing Prices

• March 2026 CBOT Wheat settled at $5.11 1/4, down 6 cents
• May 2026 CBOT Wheat finished at $5.22 3/4, down 6 cents
• March 2026 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.26 3/4, down 3 1/2 cents
• May 2026 KCBT Wheat ended at $5.38, down 5 cents
• March 2026 MIAX Wheat wrapped up at $5.66 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents
• May 2026 MIAX Wheat settled at $5.76 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents

Disclosure

At the time this article was published, Austin Schroeder did not hold any positions, either directly or indirectly, in the securities discussed.