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BlockBeats News, January 17th, today President Trump, when talking about White House National Economic Council Director Hassett, said, "I want him to continue to hold his current position, we wait and see." This statement implied that Trump may have another candidate in mind for the Federal Reserve Chair, and the market's expectations for the Fed Chair candidacy have shifted from being divided between Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh to Warsh taking a clear lead. It is worth noting that before Trump's remarks today, Hassett himself also made a statement, saying, "Warsh and Rieder would also be great Federal Reserve Chairs." Perhaps Hassett already has some understanding of Trump's final choice. Forecasting market Polymarket data shows that currently, Hassett's probability of being nominated as Chair has dropped to 15%, equivalent to Fed Governor Waller, while Kevin Warsh's nomination probability has risen to over 60%, making him the current top nomination favorite, leaving other candidates far behind. Compared to Trump's close ally and "definite dove" Hassett, Kevin Warsh has a more hawkish stance, but the market expects Warsh to still support rate cuts while advancing balance sheet reduction (QT). Earlier this year, Warsh put forward the view that "inflation is a choice," believing that inflation is not caused by the supply chain or geopolitical issues, but rather by the Fed's own policy decisions. Warsh is extremely optimistic about the U.S. economic outlook, believing that AI and deregulation will bring about a productivity boom similar to the 1980s.

According to ChainCatcher, citing Golden Ten Data, analyst Adam Button stated that Bowman remains committed to her dovish stance on rate cuts even after failing in her bid for Federal Reserve Chair. Her views on "moderately restrictive" policy differ from the consensus of most Fed members, who believe current policy is neutral or close to it. Over time, Bowman's perspective will become increasingly important, and future votes may be closely contested.

According to Odaily, analyst Adam Button stated: "It was previously thought that after failing in her bid for Federal Reserve Chair, Bowman might return to a hawkish stance, but she has continued to hold her ground. Her view on 'moderately restrictive' policy diverges from the consensus of most Fed members, as the vast majority believe the current policy is either in the neutral range or very close to it. Over time, her voice will become increasingly noteworthy, as future votes may be closely contested, and if prices rise again, she could easily shift back to a hawkish position." (Golden Ten Data)